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Thursday, September 26, 2013

■ AIRBUS: Airbus releases its 2013-32 Global Market Forecast.

As aviation becomes increasingly accessible in all parts of the world, future Journeys will increasingly be made by air particularly to and from emerging markets. According to European aircraft manufacturer, Airbus' latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) in the next 20 years (2013-2032), air traffic will grow at 4.7 per cent annually requiring over 29,220 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at nearly USD4.4 trillion. Some 28'350 of these are passenger aircraft valued at USD4.1 trillion. Of these, some 10'400 will replace existing aircraft with more efficient ones. With today’s fleet of 17'740 aircraft, it means that by 2032, the worldwide fleet will double to nearly 36'560 aircraft. 

Airbus SAS believes Africa will require 970 new 100+ seater aircraft between now and 2032. Broken down into its constituent parts, single aisle aircraft would command the lionshare of demand with 729 units, small twin aisle aircraft at 155 units, intermediate twin-aisle aircraft at 58 units and 28 very large aircraft concluding the projection. Though largely Euro-centric owing to tourism and the African Diaspora, passenger traffic growth is excepted to lean Eastward with Africa - Asia/India/Middle Eastern routes expected to register the highest overall increase at roughly 7% over the period.

Freighter demand (Converted and new aircraft) is also expected to grow with 87 aircraft expected to be in service by 2032 (29 Small, 37 Mid Size and 21 Large Aircraft) compared to 56 currently. Once again, growth is likely to lean towards the East with China, India and Middle Eastern bound traffic all registering the greatest growth potentials.

[Click to Enlarge] (Airbus)

Referencing Africa, Airbus believes that:
"Despite the continued impediments to growth that exist  in Africa, including some protectionism, high taxation on  departures and fuel, and high air fares in some cases,  there have been positive improvements across the region  in all of these areas. Very often where this has happened,  strong growth in aviation traffic has followed, a fact that will  not be lost on countries where progress has been slow.  A 2006 study quoted by Aviation Week found selected  markets that had been opened up benefited from  increased passenger numbers. For example, the route  between Nairobi and Johannesburg grew 69-fold once  liberalised. In other markets, fares fell and passenger  numbers went up. 

This is clearly not a lone example, with  traffic within Africa having grown 86% over all since 2000.  However, the difficulties that some new carriers faced to  cut through the barriers that persist, in terms of access  and cost, shows there is still much yet to be achieved.  International travel has also grown significantly since the  start of the new millennium, with 90% more international  traffic since 2000.  A significant portion of this is flown by airlines from  outside of the region, with Africa’s airlines carrying just  under 40% of passenger traffic in 2012 and their share  having fluctuated around 45% for much of the last two  decades. However, given the level of new capacity  flying to and from Africa in recent years, it shows that  African airlines are both able and willing to compete  with the higher levels of competition they have been  facing. 

Today, many airlines are developing their own  effective hub strategies to compete more effectively in  Africa’s future market."

Passenger Traffic Flow Projection: 

Route (Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) anticipated over 2013 - 2032)
  • Asia - North Africa 7.4%
  • Asia - South Africa 6.8%
  • Australia/NZ - North Africa 4.6%
  • Australia/NZ - South Africa 5.5%
  • Canada - North Africa 4.6%
  • Canada - South Africa 4.6%
  • Caribbean - North Africa 4.4%
  • Caribbean - South Africa 4.0%
  • Central America - North Africa 4.8%
  • Central America - South Africa 5.4%
  • Central Europe - North Africa 4.7%
  • Central Europe - South Africa 6.0%
  • CIS - North Africa 6.5%
  • CIS - South Africa 6.8%
  • Domestic North Africa 5.2%
  • Domestic South Africa 5.0%
  • Domestic Sub Saharan Africa 6.6%
  • Indian Sub Continent - North Africa 6.2%
  • Indian Sub Continent - South Africa 7.5%
  • Intra North Africa 5.5%
  • Intra Sub Saharan Africa 7.2%
  • Japan - North Africa 6.8%
  • Japan - South Africa 6.6%
  • Middle East - North Africa 6.3%
  • Middle East - South Africa 8.5%
  • North Africa - Pacific 6.8%
  • North Africa - PRC 8.0%
  • North Africa - Russia 6.7%
  • North Africa - South Africa 7.5%
  • North Africa - South America 5.4%
  • North Africa - United States 5.0%
  • Pacific - South Africa 6.1%
  • PRC - South Africa 6.4%
  • Russia - South Africa 6.4%
  • South Africa - South America 6.7%
  • South Africa - United States 4.9%
  • South America - United States 5.3%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Asia 6.9%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Australia/NZ 4.9%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Canada 4.3%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Caribbean 5.4%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Central America 4.9%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Central Europe 5.9%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - CIS 7.5%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Indian Sub Continent 6.9%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Japan 7.8%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Middle East 8.9%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - North Africa 7.0%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Pacific 4.5%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - PRC 7.1%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Russia 7.1%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - South Africa 6.0%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - South America 7.1%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - United States 4.7%
  • Sub Saharan Africa - Western Europe 4.5%
  • Western Europe - North Africa 4.5%
  • Western Europe - South Africa 4.9%

Cargo Traffic Flow Projection:

Route (Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) anticipated  over 2013 - 2032)
  • Africa to Asia 4.9%
  • Africa to Central America 5.7%
  • Africa to CIS 6.1%
  • Africa to Europe 4.7%
  • Africa to Indian Sub Continent 7.2%
  • Africa to Japan 2.2%
  • Africa to Middle East 5.3%
  • Africa to North America 4.8%
  • Africa to Pacific 4.4%
  • Africa to PRC 6.9%
  • Africa to South America 4.2%
  • Asia to Africa 5.3%
  • Central America to Africa 5.3%
  • CIS to Africa 4.5%
  • Europe to Africa 4.7%
  • Indian Sub Continent to Africa 6.5%
  • Intra Africa 5.1%
  • Japan to Africa 4.0%
  • Middle East to Africa 4.3%
  • North America to Africa 4.8%
  • Pacific to Africa 4.4%
  • PRC to Africa 6.3%
  • South America to Africa 5.2%
Download Airbus' Full Global Market Forecast (GMF) 2013-2032 here.

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